So far this new virus has a 3.9 percent fatality rate; However, this is likely to change in the coming weeks, she said. Some 5 thousand 460 Covid-19 patients in Mexico could present serious and critical the disease during the first season of the epidemic, according to forecasts by the Ministry of Health. Read: Covid-19: Infonavit launches support against unemployment
Ricardo Cortés, general director of Health Promotion, explained that the new disease can affect, in the worst case scenario, to 0.02 percent of the 130 million Mexicans, that is to say 26 thousand people.
Of these, 80 percent will present the disease in a mild way, that is, about 20,800; 13 percent in serious form, around 3,640; and up to 7 percent, 1,820, critically.
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He explained that in the behavioral models of the disease, an attack rate of double that of China was observed.
China had an overall population attack rate of 0.01 percent. We are assuming 0.02 percent of the population. “
The official explained that this would be the population that would enter the rule.
“We are estimating the attack rate at 0.02 percent, and that is 100 percent of those who comply with rule 80, 13, 7. Now, better to give the data from PAHO (Pan American Health Organization)” , said.
So far this new virus has a case fatality rate of 3.9 percent; However, this is likely to change in the coming weeks, considered in a separate interview, María Luisa Hernández, Head of Infectology Services at the Hospital General de México.
The expert indicated that the incubation period is 14 days after a person is exposed to the virus or with someone who has it and transmits it, but the person with symptoms does so between the third and seventh day after having been in contact.
The average number of days to present clinical symptoms is approximately four days. “
Something that is very important and that can be differentiated from the two SARS viruses, the one from 2003 and the current one, is the one that Covid-19 is contagious in asymptomatic people.
“That is why people who are in close contact with an already confirmed case are currently being screened, because we know that person may have the potential, even if they have no symptoms, to pass the infection on to other people.”
The first identified cases of Covid-19 in China were recorded in the first week of December and their peak peaks were at 30 days.
In Mexico, the first case was identified on February 28. According to the Ministry of Health, the maximum curve for coronavirus cases is expected to occur in late April.