BAC economic forecast shows slow, steady growth

The economy is looking pretty good right now. Is this as good as it gets? According to John Mitchell, PhD, the answer is, “maybe.”

Mitchell was the main speaker at the BAC Community Bank 29th Annual Economic Forecast held Feb. 27 at the Stockton Golf and Country Club. He spoke to a packed room about where the local and national economies are and where he believes they’re going.

“Four, three, two,” Mitchell began. “Four is for the handle for the unemployment rate, three percent, roughly on the GDP growth rate, and two percent on inflation … pretty amazing. Those are strong numbers.” He refers to it as a “trifecta.”

This has been growth some time in the making, Mitchell pointed out.

“We’re in a place we’re not accustomed to be. We’re in the ninth year of this upturn. We have that trifecta on the numbers. Those are things we’ve seen a lot of before,” Mitchell said. “We are now in the 104th month of this upturn.”

We will tie the economic upturn of the 1960s, Mitchell said.

“There will be only one upturn longer than this one in American history,” Mitchell said. “That was the 1990s. This is a rarified atmosphere.”

This upturn is different from past experiences in that the events that caused previous recessions aren’t there this time. The weak housing market, for example, that led to the previous recession, isn’t there. The oil output for America is strong. Mitchell cited several other examples.