The Vice President for Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño, has reiterated her forecast that the Spanish economy will grow in the fourth quarter, despite the fact that several institutions predict a contraction.
During the defense of the budget of his department for 2021 in the Plenary of the Congress of Deputies, Calviño has ensured that the available information indicates that the economic impact of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is “far below” the first .
Thus, the government’s forecast for the fourth quarter remains in “a positive evolution”, although with “all precautions”, since the uncertainty leads to the “disparity” of forecasts in the different organizations.
Calviño has defended that in recent weeks there have been positive signs, such as the forecast of having a vaccine in January or the “encouraging news” of geopolitical tensions, but also measures to restrict mobility in some regions.
The signals from high-frequency indicators for the fourth quarter are thus “mixed”, that is, some are positive, such as employment in November, and others, negative, such as the evolution of consumption.
Calviño maintains the forecast that the economy will grow by 7.2% in 2021 -9.8% with the impact of European funds- and the public deficit will be reduced, while the “good management” of the public debt has allowed reduce the emissions planned for this year by 20,000 million euros.
In 2021 the financing needs will be around 110,000 million euros and the issuance of 5,000 or 10,000 million in green bonds is expected.