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Central Bank will maintain expansive rate and speech: Chile Fixed Income

(Bloomberg) – Economists foresee that the Central Bank of Chile will send another “dovish” message on Monday in which it will ensure that its monetary policy rate will remain unchanged throughout 2021, after the economic recovery showed signs of slowing down. The central will announce its interest rate decision at 6 pm in Santiago, and all economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that it will remain at 0.5%. Analysts will look in the statement for clues as to when that expansionary stance could come to an end. The recent spike in inflation is due to the short-term impact of government transfers and pension fund withdrawals and would not change the stance. from the bank, said Nathan Pincheira, chief economist at Fynsa. Analysts forecast that the CPI rose just 0.2% in November from October, after bullish surprises of 0.7% and 0.6% in the previous two months. Chile’s National Institute of Statistics will report inflation data today at 8 a.m. The slow economic recovery will also affect the rate decision. The Imacec activity indicator contracted 1.2% in October compared to the previous year, while most analysts expected an increase. On Wednesday, analysts will pay close attention to the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Report, which will update estimates of growth, inflation and consumer demand. Chile’s Congress approved last week a second withdrawal from private pension accounts, and the The central bank announced on Friday measures to stabilize the market as the AFPs sell assets. These include purchases of term deposits, purchases of cash assets and term sales, and the extension of a REPO window with local banks until May. Withdrawals could reach US $ 19,000 million, according to a presentation by the Superintendency of Pensions, and Funds must pay the first installment within ten days of request. Here are some opinions from economists on what to expect from the central bank this week: Hugo Osorio, deputy director of investment strategy at Falcom Asset Management The central bank will maintain A moderate view because the local scenario is still very uncertain, in economic and political terms The question is whether the bank will modify its inflation forecast in the medium term, considering future deflationary pressures due to the depreciation of the dollar and higher copper prices Yair Krieger, income manager fixed rate of the brokerage Renta4 “There have been no decisive changes in the scenario since the last meeting of pol monetary policy for the bank to change its cautious stance. We are still in troubled waters “” There will be no rate increase before 2022 “Martina Ogaz, Euroamerican economist” The measures of the central to provide liquidity should be sufficient for the market considering that together they add up to about US $ 16,000 million, enough for the AFPs can liquidate local assets. ”Felipe Hernández, Bloomberg Economics“ The central is likely to sound less ‘dovish’ than in previous meetings, as higher prices, short-term inflation expectations in line with strong retail sales and withdrawal of pension savings reduces downside risks to inflation in the short term “” The statement would reduce the likelihood of further adjustments, but will be in line with plans to maintain expansionary monetary conditions for most of the official outlook of two years ”LAST WEEK Last week, the National Institute of Statistics reported that retail sales registered in October and The biggest increase in a decade, although Imacec remained in negative territory due to a slowdown in the recovery of the services sector. On the corporate front, we learned that AD Retail is preparing the registration of new 5-year bonds.THIS WEEKIn Chile: Dec. 7: Monetary Policy Rate Decision Dec. 7: November CPIDec. 7: November Trade BalanceDec. 7: Copper exports for NovemberDec. 10: International Central Bank Survey: USA: Dec. 9: October Wholesale Inventories Dec. 10: November CPIDec. 10: Bloomberg December Consumer Comfort IndexDec. 11: Producer Price Index for NovemberDec. 11: December Consumer Confidence Index from the University of MichiganChina: Dec. 6: November Trade Balance Dec. 6: November International Reserves Dec. 8: Producer Price Index for NovemberDec. 8: November CPI Eurozone: Dec. 8: GDP Q3 Dec. 10: Main rate of refinancing operations, Marginal Credit Facility and ECB Deposit Facility RECENT NEWS: Central de Chile announces measures for 2nd retirement of pensions President of Chile enacts law for second retirement of . Congress of Chile approves second retirement of pension savings Chile Nominal Salaries Up 4% YoY in Oct. Chile’s Lower House Approves Retirement of AFPs; Goes to Senate Enel Americas wants to be a giant in renewables by early 2021 Chilean companies will see revenue recovery in 2021: Fitch pension regulator in Chile calculates withdrawals of up to USD19,000m Codeco scores higher monthly copper production 2020: CochilcoAD Retail registers new bond lines, according to ICR ChileOperadores Chile forecast key rate unchanged at 0.5%: survey Chilean operators raise 12-month inflation forecast: BCCh Copper Bonanza encourages Chilean unions in negotiations Chile deputies commission approves govt retirement project AFPCiti bets on Chilean peso due to high copper and copper prices vaccine Government Chile expects positive figures for activity in November Chilean economy falls more than expected despite rising consumption One less concern for copper after Lundin agreement Retail sales in Chile register the highest increase in a decade Chile prod. manufacturing oct. it rises to 6.2% y / y; its T. 4.7% BONDS IN THE REGISTRATION OR ISSUANCE PROCESS: RECENTLY ISSUED BONDS: For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source. © 2020 Bloomberg LP

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