10/04/2021 at 2:40 PM CEST
Real Madrid and Barcelona have lived one of the darkest weeks in their respective histories. Losing in Europe and in the local competition in the same week is strange for the two greats of world football. If Real Madrid lost to the Sheriff and Espanyol, their counterpart did it to Benfica and Atlético de Madrid.
350 days without losing both in the league
Focusing on the local competition, 350 days had passed since Madrid and Barça did not fall on the same league match. It happened on October 17, 2020 when the whites lost to Cádiz (0-1) and the Catalans against Getafe (1-0) and on this day, the eighth, Ancelotti’s men succumbed to Espanyol (2-1) and those of Koeman, against Atlético (2-0).
This has made the Madridistas lose their advantage at the head of the League and now share the leadership with Atlético de Madrid and Real Sociedad while the Catalans descend to ninth place in the standings, but with one game less.
Madrid is still the favorite to win the League
Despite the historic setback in the Champions League against the very modest Sheriff at the Bernabéu and the unexpected defeat against a recently promoted Espanyol, Ancelotti’s men retain the favoritism to win the League. According to Betfair forecasts, Real Madrid is still number one to win the title, which is trading at 1.83 (54.6%).
Their defeat at the RCDE Stadium ended their unbeaten streak away from home and set it again at 18 games, but they do not see that this defeat is a great threat to their title. In fact, it doubles in probabilities its most immediate pursuer, Atlético de Madrid, who has a 3.75 quota for the title, which, translated into probability, indicates 26.7%.
Ancelotti’s men multiply their options by four against Barça
LaLiga is practically a closed preserve of Real Madrid and Barcelona, the eternal favorites for the title. In fact between the two they add 60 titles to the 30 accumulated by the rest of the teams that have participated throughout the 90 previous editions.. In this 21st century only two teams have sneaked into the duopoly winning four of the 20 remaining titles at stake and which were distributed between whites (6) and azulgranas (10).
Despite the fact that the Madridistas had not lost two games in a row since last January, bettors continue to believe that the title will fly to the Bernabéu this season with what that means for the sports archenemy, a Barça that is the third favorite to conquer the League but with a very high share of 7.00 (14.3%). The whites are almost four times more favorites than the Catalans to succeed Atlético de Madrid as champions in the regularity tournament.
Barça will get into the Champions League with or without Koeman
The waters go down with more and more revolts in Barcelona, and despite the endorsement of Joan Laporta, president of the culé, about Ronald Koeman, the truth is that Betfair’s forecasts continue to see very evident that there will be a change on the Camp Nou bench. Xavi remains the best placed (odds of 3.00 and 33.3% probability) ahead of Pirlo (odds of 4.00, 25%) and where Gallardo sneaks in (odds of 6.00, 16.7%) to complete the top-3.
They have only won one game in the last month and that has brought them down to the middle of the table. Despite the bad image given, the turbulence that can be guessed at Can Barça, the discrepancies in a changed dressing room or the bad run of results, Barça is still Barça and that weighs heavily when it comes to predicting what their final position will be in the League. It is one thing that he is not a favorite to win it and quite another that he does not go back and finish in the top four, which gives him the right to play the Champions League.
They have not missed their appointment with the maximum continental competition since the 2003/04 season and according to Betfair’s forecasts they will not be absent in the next edition of 2022-2023. Barcelona’s share to finish in the top four is 1.36, or what is the same, 73.5% implicit probability. In that forecast, they are below Real Madrid (share of 1.03, 97.1%) and Atlético de Madrid (share of 1.13, 88.5%), but well ahead of the fifth and sixth favorites: Real Sociedad (share of 2.3, 43.5% ) and Villarreal (4.0, 25% share).