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New outbreaks cast doubt on China’s swine recovery

(Bloomberg) – China’s Ministry of Agriculture believes that by mid-year the country will have fully recovered the number of pigs it lost to African swine fever. New outbreaks of the virus and other lethal pig diseases could pose risks to this projection. A resurgence of swine fever cases in colder northern provinces prompted farmers to slaughter more breeding sows ahead of the Lunar New Year, Lin Guofa said, Senior Analyst at the consulting firm Bric Agriculture Group. Pork is China’s favorite meat, and its consumption typically increases during the holiday period. Other viruses, such as foot-and-mouth disease and swine epidemic diarrhea, have also taken their toll in outbreaks exacerbated by a more extreme winter than usual, Lin said. . “The recovery of pig herds in some regions could be delayed, particularly in Shandong and parts of Henan and Hebei,” he said. This means that up to 15% of the national pig herd has been lost due to illness during the winter, and their complete rehabilitation to pre-swine fever levels is most likely in the second half of 2022, said Wang Zhong, chief consultant at Systematic, Strategic & Soft Consulting Co. New variants of swine fever have been identified that have been less easy Stabilizing the swine population and reducing market volatility has been a top priority for authorities since 2018, when swine fever reached China’s pig herd, the world’s largest to detect and harder to control, he said. There is no officially licensed vaccine and the epidemic cut pig numbers in half, leading to a surge in pork imports and prices. Global agricultural markets have been further affected in recent months by the boost. government to achieve a rapid recovery of the numbers, causing a massive shortage of grains and vacating silos in North America. China’s pig population had returned to 90% of normal levels by the end of November, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The ministry did not respond to a fax seeking comment on its latest forecasts. Efforts to accelerate the release of imported meat stored in ports and in cold stores, estimated at about 1 million tonnes, should help control pork prices, he said. Lin from Bric Agriculture. On Monday, live pig futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at their highest price since the contract debuted last month.Original Note: China’s New Outbreaks of Pig Diseases Spark Doubts Over RecoveryFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source. © 2021 Bloomberg LP

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