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Emerging stocks could surpass 2007 peak in 2021

(Bloomberg) – Stocks in developing countries are finally poised to break their all-time high of 2007, amid the prospects for global stimulus and progress in vaccines, according to BCA Research Inc.The MSCI benchmark index Inc. for emerging markets stocks has a more than 50% chance of rising to a record high in 2021, says Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at the Montreal-based firm. The rallies in the last decade have not surpassed the level that preceded the global financial crisis, but the indicator is now less than 6.5%. “This is the first time I see the possibility of emerging market stocks out. of this level that has been an important ceiling ”, said Tuesday in an event online. BCA is an independent research firm founded in 1949.Budaghyan cited the increase in the money supply in the US as the main driver of a breakthrough. Investors, especially those with money in relatively few assets, will likely put their funds into risky assets, he says. Assets in developing countries have won since the US election, as Joe Biden’s victory fueled expectations of a huge stimulus package that would flood the global economy with dollars and send investors to riskier assets in search of returns. Progress on the covid-19 vaccine front also fueled optimism, helping the stock index rise 9.2% in November, the highest for a month since 2016.Budaghyan said past rallies were on. capped by the 2007 high because earnings growth had not been strong enough. This time, however, expectations of corporate earnings are rising as economies rebound from the pandemic shock and more countries implement plans to distribute vaccines. Still, Budaghyan says there could be a correction before stocks hit a record high. as investors can take profits after the recent rally. That could be a buying opportunity, as gains are likely to resume when new drivers emerge. “The best way to describe it would be a jolt before a breakout,” he says.Original Note: Emerging-Market Stocks May Surpass 2007 High Next Year , Says BCAFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source. © 2020 Bloomberg LP

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