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The black swans | Diary16

The “teleological scenario” would be one in which “the purpose of the creative processes were planned by finite models that could intermodel or simulate various alternative futures and in which intention, purpose and foresight prevailed, But after the triumph of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections in 2016, we witnessed the emergence of the “teleonomic scenario” that will be marked by extreme doses of volatility.

Donald Trump’s black swans

The frivolization of the coronavirus by Trump as well as his delay in adopting surgical measures in the main sources of transmission of the coronavirus in the US has led to a real nightmare with its consequent collateral effects in the form of a trail of deaths (more than 200,000 deaths ), collapse of medical services, paralysis of productive activity and entry into recession of the US economy. Likewise, the collapse in the price of oil would have caused close to 200 bankruptcy declarations of companies dedicated to shale with an accumulated debt of close to $ 120,000 million that will later affect the income statement of large banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo and that could lead to a new financial crisis in the near future.

Thus, the inaction of companies would have triggered a stratospheric increase in unemployment, which, together with the foreseeable stock market crash of Wall street will end by diluting the beneficial effects of the economic policy of Donald trump and to provoke the disaffection of the population segment of its voters (40% of the electorate) in the next Presidential elections in November.

On the other hand, the explosion of urban violence in the city of Minneapolis after the brutal death by suffocation of a defenseless George Floyd in a new disproportionate and clearly racist performance by law enforcement, caused metropolitan areas with high rates of African-American population to explode in massive mobilizations.

Does the Republican Party write off Donald Trump?

The paranoia of Trump would have been aggravated by being affected by the call Hydris syndromequoted by the English doctor and politician David owen in his work “The Hybris Syndrome: Busch, Blair against the Intoxication of Power ”. This term comes from the Greek word “hybris” which means excess and that would have its paradigm in the attempt to apply thea Law of Insurrection that would entail the use of the Army. This would be part of its new electoral slogan for the November Presidential elections (“The President of Law and Order ”) that would imply Trump’s desire to become a tyrant, making the prophetic words of Founding Father James Madison come true, who in number 47 of the Federalist’s essay, expressed that“ the accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judicial, in the same hands and if it is hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, it can be equated to the same definition of tyranny ”.

The attempt to militarize the entire country would have caused unease in the dominant establishment of USA and would have its expression in the statements of the secretary of Defender Mark Sper, which is opposed to the application of the Insurrection Law after stating that “Racism is real in the country and we must do everything possible to recognize it, stand up to it and eradicate it”And special relevance acquires the media irruption of the ex-secretary of Defense of the Trump Administration, former Navy General James Mattis in accusing Trump of “Trying to divide ourselves and the need to unite without him, taking advantage of the forces inherent in our civil society.” The Republican establishment will end up accepting the electoral results after retaining the Senate and will leave Donald trump left to his own devices and at the mercy of the future judicial processes that await him.

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