The latest forecasts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) paint a dark picture with an economic contraction of 6.5 percent for this year and an unemployment rate that will touch 11 percent.
In particular, the course taken by the COVID-19 pandemic, which is far from over in the United States, will have a decisive influence on the decision voters make on November 3. If another aid package prevents hundreds of thousands of people from losing their homes after the pandemic prevents them from paying their rent or mortgage, this could give Donald Trump the tailwind needed to regain the presidency.
Biden is not even in favor of Medicare for All, Bernie Sanders’ idea of building a free, universal public health system, similar to those in Western Europe. Biden is portrayed as someone other than Trump.
Polls in crucial states become more important than national polls. According to Trump, the country risks falling into a spiral of public disorder and anarchy led by radical sectors that seek to change the “American way of life.”
This strategy has only one target: the white electorate. In two directions. Maintain the support of working-class voters who were instrumental in his victory in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016. The second, regain the support lost among middle- or upper-middle-class white voters, who live mostly in the suburbs of cities, which abandoned Republicans in the 2018 legislative elections.
By now, it is almost safe to say that Biden will get more votes than Trump at the polls. The difference may be even higher than in 2016. But that does not guarantee victory in the electoral college. Four years ago, the Republican’s victory was possible because he outscored Clinton by 77,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
During the first seven months of 2020, the United States registered some 215,000 deaths above the usual, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). More than half of the dead are members of minorities: African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans and, to a marked degree not yet recognized, Asian Americans.
These minorities make up just under 40 percent of the United States population, but account for about 52 percent of all “excess deaths” above normal through July. With this new data, Asian-Americans join African-Americans and Hispanics among the hardest-hit communities, with deaths in each group increasing by at least 30% this year compared to the average for the past five years. according to analysis.
The displacement of public debate towards racial issues poses a high risk of division and confrontation in a society like that of the United States. The mantra is to vote Democratic because you are of Latino or black origin.
At the Democratic Convention in August, Biden’s candidacy was made official with the support of 3,558 delegates compared to 1,151 obtained by his rival Bernie Sanders, that is, 75 percent of the vote on-line, on the second day. Sanders defends the achievements of the Cuban revolution.
In 1988, Sanders, mayor of Burlington (Vermont) and newly married, traveled to the USSR for his honeymoon. Sanders said at the press conference. “We have not done a study of these things, but people seem happy. I didn’t notice many shortcomings ».
Barack Obama has looked down on his vice president. From the “I don’t remember what Joe said, which is not surprising»From Obama’s first press conference to You can never underestimate Joe’s ability to screw things up»That the former president leaked this spring, there is a long list to his former ‘number two’.
Biden has managed to be on the front lines of politics for nearly five decades. She is now the leader of a diverse coalition of minorities, women, and the most highly educated groups in the US.
The candidate of the Democratic Party presents a great social agenda to control the coronavirus pandemic and “effectively” reopen the national economy. He promised to extend unemployment insurance for the COVID-19 crisis, which will provide state, local and tribal governments with the help necessary so that essential workers – such as medical personnel and teachers – are not laid off during the health crisis.
If the main message from Democrats is that Trump is “a threat to democracy” and the well-being of Americans because of his failure to manage the pandemic and stop its disastrous effects on the economy, Republicans plan to amplify the idea of that the president is the only thing stopping the chaos on the streets of many cities that voters have been seeing for months on a daily basis.
Trump promises the creation of 10 million jobs in just 10 months. This would be done through tax credits for companies that move their manufacturing headquarters from China to the North American nation …
Trump accuses Joe Biden, of being too weak to oppose the Democratic left wing, and that it is a question of “deciding whether to protect citizens who comply with the laws or if we give carte blanche to violent anarchists, agitators and criminals who threaten our citizens. ».
It is a letter with which the president hopes to mobilize his base, and especially the women of what in the US are called ‘suburbs’, which are areas of white middle and upper-middle class single-family villas, which in 2016 gave him the victory, but now they seem to lean more towards the Democratic candidate.
In June, the unemployment rate stood at 11.1 percent, lower than the estimate of 12.3 percent and the rate of 13.3 percent the previous month. 4.77 million private nonfarm payrolls were also created, compared to 2.9 million estimated and 3.23 million in May.
Average annual hourly earnings rose 5 percent (less than expected) and monthly data fell 1.2 percent. Average weekly working hours was 34.5 (same as estimated and less than May 34.7). As for the new requests for unemployment benefit, these have been at 1.42 million, compared to 1.48 million in May.
The decline in economic activity has massively affected labor-intensive sectors. GDP grew +0.3 percent y / y in 1Q20 (vs -3.1 percent in the EMU). In annualized quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP fell -5.0 percent.
One of the key points of the dispute is related to the extension of the unemployment benefit for millions of Americans who lost their jobs because of the pandemic (of 600 dollars a week). More than 20 million Americans have received this aid since the end of March so, without a pact in sight, they are approaching the economic cliff, since this aid was until now their lifeline.
With his arsenal of strengths and weaknesses, Biden will have to face an unpredictable competitor down the stretch who routinely does not play by the rules of the game and could eventually draw cards up his sleeve.
Sister Deirdre “Dede” Byrne POSC, a retired military and surgeon, participated in the Republican National Convention in August and said it is not just pro-life, but “pro eternal life”. “As followers of Christ we are called to defend life against what is politically correct or what is in fashion today”, adding that “we must fight against a legislative agenda that supports and even celebrates the destruction of life in the womb.”
The nun later praised President Trump’s defense of life and questioned the abortion stance of Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Finally, Sister Deirdre Byrne said that “the weapon” of those who defend life is “the Rosary”. Biden, a Catholic, is a staunch advocate for abortion, and has been a senator from the state of Delaware, a tax haven – for 36 years. If you were a US citizen, 3-N would be clear about it.