“Very attentive if a increase in inflation expectations it carries over to bond yields, because markets are expensive and supported by low rates. “It has been one of the main warnings of Tressis looking forward to 2021.
For example, if the profitability of the american bond it begins to rise strongly, as it has done in recent days (although it has not affected the stock markets), it is because the perception of risk is skyrocketing, which can cause “very important volatility peaks“, as warned Jose Miguel Maté, CEO of the manager.
Daniel Lacalle, chief economist of the securities society, has commented that “very few warn about the stagflation, an economy without growth but where prices rise, which would be frankly harmful at that point that sustains the high valuation of many markets, the null profitability of the bonds, artificially limited by the central banks and the governments “.
“If the level of returns is altered, we can see important fixes“Maté added, which nevertheless can be “taken advantage of” to position portfolios at more attractive levels.
“From the point of view of the markets, the positive forecast for business benefits it can suppose even more pressure if they are not finally fulfilled “, Lacalle highlighted.
On the best sectors of 2020, the economist highlighted “technology, sustainability and demographic change“as main trends, and that were accelerated by the pandemic. In addition, the rotation towards cyclical sectors at the end of the year it indicates that “growth sectors continue to have potential” and “risks remain high in value sectors”.
As the main risks for 2021, Lacalle has cited, in addition to inflation, “the confinements and restrictions due to Covid-19“, which may last longer than expected during the first quarter. In addition, the overly optimistic forecasts for growth and trade war between the US and China, as well as “possible protests by the increase of the cost of the living” in some countries.
José Miguel Maté considers “determining the selection of sectors“at the time of positioning the portfolios.” favoring the United States over Europe, despite the high valuation of these assets, due to the flexibility of its economy. And in emerging markets, we clearly favor Asia over Latin America. “
On Spain, Tressis’ forecast is that GDP will advance 4.5% in 2021, so there will be “sectors and companies that are going to be favored”, although the premise is “be selective“His advice is to build” prudent portfolios, taking advantage of liquidity and optimism about the vaccine, but with the handbrake, because there are going to be important volatility peaks. “
For Lacalle, “the objective of an investor must be preserve capital and not have everything bet on the same. Securities with low volatility with little risk of downward revisions and assets that function as countercyclical when corrections come.
In his opinion, “it is very important to have defenses in the portfolios, with cyclical position in equities and at the same time exposure to the dollar, gold or silver, that act as a cushion in an environment of volatility “.
For Maté, “the sectors related to technology they will continue to be clear beneficiaries of all this context. Great values will continue to be protagonists, but there are many companies below that will continue to grow very significantly in artificial intelligence, data management and other sectors “.