Another week of volatility. Wall Street registers 2% increases after closing one of its most bullish weeks in history (although more than 3% fell on Friday). He Petroleum It is taking center stage, as West Texas crude oil falls 4% to $ 20.53, the lowest in the last 18 years. The other protagonist is Trump, since The US President has extended the restrictions due to the virus until April 30.
Despite bouncing 12% in the last five sessions, the Dow Jones accumulates a fall of 26% from its all-time high in mid-February.
And all this due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has become a real shock to the world economy and has caused a sudden global recession, which has caused this great collapse of the bags. And almost in parallel, the great monetary response of the central banks and governments To prevent the health crisis and economic slowdown from becoming a financial and credit crisis, rear and violent rebound of world stock markets.
The latest data shows more than 140,000 cases only in US territory and the death toll is expected to reach its highest peak in two weeks. One of the highest officials in the fight against the disease in the US, the epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, has calculated that the death toll in this country will range from 100,000 and 200,000 people.
“The bags face a even worse news period regarding the virus and macro data in the next two months, “warn strategists at MRB Partners.” The world is entering a third phase, that of economic collapse, which will test investor confidence, “they say.
“Our thesis is that, taking into account the speed of the fall, there will be relief rallies but they will end up being overshadowed,” the experts from JPMorgan in your last report. “Rebounding can end up being a tactical weapon too,” they add.
Volatility also continues in the rest of the world stock markets. In Europe, the Ibex cuts its falls after registering Spain a lower growth in its death toll from the virus. In Asia, the parks have closed with mixed sign the beginning of the week.
In other markets, the euro depreciates 1% and changes to $ 1.1025 and the profitability of 10-year American bond falls to 0.64%. For his part, the VIX volatility index it falls 3%, up to 63 points.
And by technical analysis, the Dow Jones, has rebounded from the support area that is the 50% of set / reverse level of all the accumulated rise from the lows of the last great crisis: March 2009. “As the most important resistance zone we have the last of the big bearish holes, at 23,185 points“indicates José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.