Where can the Ibex 35 go ​​if there is confinement like last spring?

Yesterday the Spanish selective choked the 8,200 points and today the same is happening but 100 points lower. Nothing worrisome since we are really immersed in a 7-week lateral consolidation between 8,320 and 8,000 points, ignoring the downward opening gap the day after the expiration of December.

Yet we are beginning to see the effects of the Christmas holidays with contagions that are doubling and even tripling in many autonomous communities that suggest a possible measure like the one we suffered in the month of March and that collapsed tourism, employment and GDP.

Now really the same should not happen since we already have a vaccine and others will be on the table very soon. It is for this reason that, despite the slowness in the vaccination campaign, the situation is very different from what was then discussed in the stock market. In fact, we have the proof in the rises that the London Stock Exchange is having today after announcing an immediate confinement yesterday.

Evolution of the Ibex 35

Evolution of the Ibex 35

Eduardo Bolinches

So the most likely scenario goes through a I test the minimums that we saw last December 21 after the most important maturity of the year has passed.

This price level is in the 7,663.5 points and only seeing closings below them would we end up in the next great support of 7,100 points where good buying opportunities would be generated for the medium and long term.

Where can we protect ourselves against a possible fall?

There are many ways to protect yourself from a descent. The simplest is with the contracting bearish products if we choose not to sell the portfolio. These can be bearish ETFs or put warrants that are listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange and therefore do not require additional account openings.

Then we also have the option of opening an account in the Spanish Financial Futures Market (MEFF) through one of its members to access the options market and buy put options or sell futures. Although the most used for its ease is to open an account through some CFD brokers and sell either the index or the CFDs themselves on the shares we want to hedge.

However, all of them require training and previous experience that you may not have at the moment so the best thing you could do is start training to be prepared as soon as possible to be able to do portfolio hedging when you see that the markets have the potential to fall.

So, while you are training with this type of product, you have other alternatives as simple as taking shelter in the fashion sector par excellence in recent months which is the solar with its maximum exponents in Solaria, Siemens Gamesa, SolarPack and Soltec. The latter two being the ones that show some fatigue in their prices, but they are optimal companies to be protected against a supposed correction and take advantage of the corrections in these values ​​to enter again.

Nor should we forget electric sector, especially to Iberdrola, that as long as it does not lose the 11.50 euros it is a winning horse. In fact, it is very likely that this price level will be tested very soon and once it is confirmed that this support holds, we have another serious candidate to enter.

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